Sometimes I am right, and it is usually the result of me being the victim of timing or chance. Last year, while spending all of my waking hours talking, thinking, and eating National Security,1 I was a harbinger of doom on the Arab Awakening/Spring. It wasn’t that I disbelieved the reality of “change” coming to the Middle East, nor did I question the sincerity of the protesters. What I questioned, and still question, is what the future of the Middle East will look like now that douchebags like Mubarak and Gaddafi have been removed power.2 I didn’t question the change, I question the result of the change. Western, especially American, democracy has not taken root in the Middle East, but then again who can claim, without some sort of political arrogance, that this type of democracy is the best thing for the Middle East. It is still a situation of the those in power attempting to maintain it, while ensuring that power isn’t diluted or taken away. People are selfish bastards that way.
In this vein of predictions (and in a continuance of my last post that provided 3 reasons why it may suck to be a Republican voter come November), I am now going to provide 3 reasons why it may not be good for Democratic voters come election day this Fall. Unlike Republican voters, hating November may not be the result of the Democratic voters themselves but it may be the result of President’s lackluster performance, visceral emotions concerning certain words (and meanings), and money (lots and lots of money).
– Reason 1: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss
Republicans think he is a Kenyan born anti-christ, and Democrats think he is a closet Republican… or at a minimum, a man who promises the moon and then doesn’t deliver.3 Terrorists are still incarcerated in GITMO (which seems as alien or foreign as the moon), American unilateral military actions abound,4 and the economy still doesn’t feel right. Finally, once again – for a fourth year in a row – the President (like his Republican predecessor) will request a lot of money that isn’t present, now or in the future, in the federal treasury. The President’s FY2013 budget requests government funding that is $901 billion over federal intakes, and is another $1 trillion-plus deficit.5 Democratic or Republican, every President wants to spend money without having to raise taxes in a manner that actually aligns, more closely, outlays with intakes. Voters of all flavors are getting really tired of seeing government spending that continues to push the nation further and further into the red. Everyone believes they know what is necessary government spending, and everyone thinks they know what should be cut. Come November, voters may decide they have gotten tired of President Obama’s spending priorities.6
– Reason 2: Cultural War Words… hope and change
Voters don’t kick bums out of office because they want change, they kick them out because they are tired. Senator John McCain didn’t lose because Senator Obama was the candidate of change, Sen. McCain lost because voters were tired of the Republicans (President Bush) being in the White House. They were tired of two wars and they were tired of seeing the GOP mess. Now, voters may be tired of President Obama’s mess. This sense of tired is also coupled with President Obama’s ill-advised foray into the cultural wars. Regardless of one’s view of religious businesses health care coverage of contraception, President Obama released a shitstorm when he decided to wade into the cultural war (and waded right into Santorum’s wheelhouse… let’s see if he can knock it out of the park). In an election year, it doesn’t seem too smart to stir up the religious voters. This move now has released the purse strings of those with a mind that is easily swayed over what they think is an assault on their religious freedoms. Nothing gets people wound up than the idea of someone, or something, affecting their “freedom.”
– Reason 3: Money
Wow… this is interesting. As of December, President Obama had approximately $140 million in his campaign coffers, whereas Mitt Romney had approximately $57 million. On the surface, this seems to tip the scales in the President’s favor until you examine the percentage of funding that the result of the maximum donation amount ($2,500). President Obama received 20% of his funding from large donors, Romney 60%. It appears that those who are willing to provide a lot of money to a presidential campaign like Romney. Additionally, if you look at the GOP candidates funding collectively you will see that GOP financial supporters gave approximately $156 million total. If the final GOP candidate is capable of wooing a significant portion of his fellow GOP competitors’ voters, then one may assume that some of their money will come with them. This examination of campaign money will become more pertinent around March or April when a final GOP candidate is nominated and the request for money from donors reaches a screamingly high pitch.7 Capitalism isn’t just an economic system that provides you with money to waste on a Snuggie, it also provides you money to donate to a political campaign.
1. I spent August through June 2011 attending the Department of Defense’s National War College. I was recruited for my athletic abilities (inside joke) and spent nearly 10 months learning how fucking complicated the world is, and that China isn’t as scary as popularly believed and Mexico may be the ultimate ass pain for America. But what do I know?
2. Syria’s Assad seems to be the next one.
3. Okay, Newt Gingrich promised the moon, whereas President Obama is probably one of the biggest “victims” of campaigning over-sale ever.
4. However, Osama bin Laden is dead… and President Obama did set a pretty clean course on US military involvement in Libya, and (now) Syria. This appeases Dem voters and pisses off GOP voters.
5. This is a little bit about it.
6. And may replace him with someone else who’s spending priorities will be just as whacked.
7. A non-academic analysis of this campaign funding site also makes me wonder about the break down of donations. In both Romney and Obama’s size of donation columns there seems to be 3 donation amount ranges that people like. Under $200 is double digits for the both of them: Obama 53%, Romney 11% (people with less money like Obama more?). $500-$1,499 is another double-digit percentage: Obama 14%, Romney 18% (affluent people showing their preference?). Finally, the maximum amount of $2,500: Obama 20%, Romney 60% (the rich showing us who is boss?). Arguably, in the end it may be about money.